Data — NFL Player Prop Research and Chrispy Scores
Featured Lines
The lines below are our picks, researched with All-22 film (not highlight reels) in addition to our data tools. All NFL players are searchable, whether we feature them or not.
Featured matchups and Chrispy Scores
SF @ LAR
NO @ DET
DAL @ NYG
How these lines are researched
See every scored line this week on the NFL Chrispy Score rankings.
DAL WR - CeeDee Lamb · O0.5 Anytime Touchdown
DAL @ NYG · Chrispy Score 14 from 14 qualifying games
Last 5 0/5vs NYG 2/5vs similar defenses 0/4
NYG defense under Dennard Wilson — Aggressive, multiple hybrid running Cover 2 and Cover 3
SEA WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba · O9 Receiving Targets
NE @ SEA · Chrispy Score 77 from 13 qualifying games
Last 5 3/5vs NE 3/3vs similar defenses 4/5
NE defense under Zak Kuhr — Multiple 4-3/3-4 hybrid running quarters coverage (Cover 4)
DET RB - Jahmyr Gibbs · O0.5 Anytime Touchdown
NO @ DET · Chrispy Score 55 from 11 qualifying games
Last 5 3/5vs NO 0/1vs similar defenses 3/5
NO defense under Brandon Staley — 3-4 base running two-high safety shells (Cover 4 and Cover 6)
SF QB - Brock Purdy · O0.5 Interceptions
SF @ LAR · Chrispy Score 75 from 8 qualifying games
Last 5 5/5vs LAR 1/3vs similar defenses —
LAR defense under Chris Shula — 3-4 hybrid running two-high safety shells (Cover 4 and Cover 6)
LAR WR - Puka Nacua · O0.5 Anytime Touchdown
SF @ LAR · Chrispy Score 50 from 14 qualifying games
Last 5 4/5vs SF 3/5vs similar defenses 0/4
SF defense under Raheem Morris — Aggressive 4-3 base/Wide-9 running Zone
SF RB - Christian McCaffrey · O4.5 Receptions
SF @ LAR · Chrispy Score 80 from 10 qualifying games
Last 5 4/5vs LAR 4/5vs similar defenses —
LAR defense under Chris Shula — 3-4 hybrid running two-high safety shells (Cover 4 and Cover 6)
What a Chrispy Score is
A Chrispy Score is a hit rate, not a sportsbook probability. We take the posted line and check how often the player has actually cleared it across three samples: his last 5 games, his last 5 games against this week's opponent, and his last 5 games against defenses we consider comparable to it. The score is the share of those games that finished on the side we published.
Where the statistics come from
Every historical game value is read from nflverse play-level data and joined to the canonical NFL game record, so a bar on a chart and the line of text beside it always describe the same game — same date, same opponent, same venue. Nothing in the score is hand-entered.
Similar Defense eligibility
A past game only counts as a Similar Defense game when the opponent faced is on our curated similar-scheme list for this week's defense AND that opponent was operating in a recognized scheme era on the date the game was played. A coordinator change ends an era, so older games against the same franchise are excluded rather than quietly counted.
When there is no score
If a player has no game log for that statistic, or none of the three samples produce a single qualifying game, we show the line as unavailable. We never fill the gap with an estimate, a model output or a book's implied number.
Lines and timing
Lines are ingested for the current week's single-game markets only — never season-long or futures markets, and never combined multi-player markets. Automatic updates stop 24 hours before each kickoff; after that, only a player being ruled out can change what is shown.